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Are AdSense publishers’ revenues on a slippery slope, or what?
If you’ve been a Google AdSense publisher for several years, you probably remember the 18th of November, 2007.
That’s the day the clickable zones in Google’s ads were dramatically modified so only the title and the link were clickable, instead of the whole ad, including the description and the surrounding “white space”.
This modification in the way the Google AdSense ads were delivered to publishers’ web pages had desastrous consequences in their revenue — most publishers seeing their click through rate (CTR) drop by over 50%, with revenues plunging accordingly.
The AdWord advertisers were happy but even through this measure should’ve encouraged them to spend more (because of the heightened legitimity of the clicks), it didn’t seem to have any significant effect and publisher revenues have never recovered from that spectacular drop, starting in mid-November of 2007.
Fast forward in March of 2009, with a nasty recession hitting the US and many other “first world” countries, AdSense publishers are being hit by another revenue drop, this time, by the way of free falling effective cost per thousand impressions (eCPMs).
While the eCPM for a business blog might’ve averaged around $15 in January of 2009, something happened in mid-February that has been tanking the eCPM since. Nowadays, in March, the same profile is lucky to get $3 (of eCPM) instead of the usually very stable (over the last year, at least) $15 revenue threshhold.
Because of this, a typical publisher used to getting some $50 a day will likely get 5 times less and with a meager 10$ —for the exact same number of valid clicks— to live by, which obviously isn’t enough.
Most AdSense insiders know Google has taken a bit more than its “fair share”, over the last year but this latest drop in web publisher revenues is probably linked directly to the advertisers themselves… and how little money they now invest in the online advertising campaigns.
But Google isn’t providing web publishers with any sort of insight that would confirm this theory so we’re all forced to speculate to guess what’s causing Google AdSense’s publisher revenues to hit (what appears to be) record lows.
Other long-time web publishers think the global (and domestic) inventory of quality advertising zones has grown exponentially and therefore, advertisers now have access to a nearly unlimited number of online venues to reach their “intended audience”. This is likely to take a (serious) toll of the already battered web publisher revenues.
And there’s another thing…
Yes, it gets worse — Google AdWords now features way to screen out certain type of publishers and as such, an advertiser can decide to spend his money in Google’s own network of sites instead of “spreading the wealth” elsewhere, in the “web publisher network”. The controls allow for more fine-tuning but the stage is set for yet another hit of web publisher revenues. Even for those who create unique, valuable and sought content.
And last but not least, Google’s rules on what constitutes a “valid click” seem to be quite variable, depending on who you ask.
Most web publishers were under the impression that whenever a visitor —an genuine one, that is— clicked on an ad, money was awarded to their account, for that click. Well, it’s not simple, anymore.
It seems Google AdSense’s rules have evolved in such a way that if a visitor doesn’t stay “x” number of minutes of the advertisers’ web site, the click doesn’t count, at all. Speculation about a “one minute minimum” time requirement is rampant in several AdSense-related forums but, as with so many things regarding AdSense, any information of remotely significant value is usually kept —secret— so articles like this one are only going to multiply, all over the web, with all flavors of “requirements” being discussed. Google should really clear the air on all of these matters but if it hasn’t done so in the past so, realistically, there’s little chance things will change, in the future.
So, for the time being, countless web publishers are getting hit head-on by the “financial crisis” and it’s unclear when things will head back up… if ever.
For the hour, what seems to be akin to a tragedy is taking place and web publishers will need to take action, sooner or later, to recoup their lost revenues.
Tags: adsense, google adsense, falling revenues, lower revenues, low ctr, low ecpm, financial crisis, recession, economic downturn, dramatic drop in adsense revenues, advertisers, adwords, google adwords, speculation, speculation about adsense, web publishers, publishers losing money, adsense money, adsense advertising
6 Responses to “Are AdSense publishers’ revenues on a slippery slope, or what?”
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Well, this provides at least some slight relief in that I’m not the only one; other people are experiencing lowered revenue as well.
This gives me some reassurance. I notice more non-relevant ads on my site and I think it is due to less advertising/advertisers.
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Great article – have been realy scratching my head the last week or so trying to work it all out. Much more impressions, more clicks, less revenue. Oh well, keep plugging away I suppose.
[...] build high-quality web destinations, financed through AdSense, in 2007 and 2008, this year’s revenue slide has convinced most to get back on the job market and basically forget (for a while, at least) about [...]
Can anyone throw some light on how the quality score for advertisers can affect the earning of a publisher? Any mathematical formula worked out by anybody?